5* in a year as F2P

Hi guys, currently planning on what to summon over the next year or two. But, going by free SQ alone, in average, how many rate up SSRs are realistic to aim for in a year? 1? 2? 3?

I am hoping to make a few of my SSR to NP2 but it seems some of them are quite close to each other, so thinking to postpone some til their next banner when possible.

A rate up servant is 0.7% chance to get. Mathematically speaking, one needs approximately 150 pulls to get one (thus 450 SQ).

I seem to have came upon a link that calculated how many SQ we can accumulate over time, but couldnt find it now.

Thank you!

While I’m not F2P, I’d strongly caution against putting much stock in the math.

It’s nice to know to a point, but it also seems either to promote unrealistic expectations (namely the Gambler’s Fallacy) or to suck the fun out of even trying.

The best you can do is probably to determine which Servants you really want, make a list, and then keep cutting until the “likes” are gone and only the “loves” remain.

If your most desired Servant’s rate-up is early, you can start there and see how much SQ you have left if you get them. If they come later in the year, you have some hard decisions to make.

Also, you can elect to throw tickets at some banners instead for fun and with low expectations if you don’t want to abstain from rolling completely, but many players will save these up as well in anticipation of their next true must-have.

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You’re probably talking about this link: https://shipfu.moe/fgo/

I would say you could probably get 3 SSR per year as a f2p, but of course it all depends on your luck

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Its best to temper your expectations if you’re gonna be F2P. Like @Gou said its best not to look at the math, yeah you could get lucky and get a 5 star with a few or you could spend $1000 and get jack shit.

a lot of 3 star and below are good in this game so don’t write off all the free units available as trash. Also events and the like will give you welfare servants that will help you fill in whole for your team.

the good and bad of NA is that we are 2 years behind so we can plan out who we want to get looking at the JP schedule so I’d say look at whats coming up and try to save for the few you wanna get.

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There’s no real point in trying to work this out mathematically because there are too many variables, but if you really want to, then lets do some general estimates.

Maths

This year (2020) there are 468 SQ and 173 tickets from events. You also get 5 tickets per month from the shop, an average of 1 SQ per day from daily logins, 30 SQ for every 50 daily logins, and 3 SQ per week from master quests. That comes out to 1898. If we add a bit for bonding, interludes, and whatever else you might randomly pick up, then you’re looking at about 1950-2000 SQ equivalents in this year.

Now, lets take that 1950 and work out how many servants you can roll for before your probability drops below 50%. This is using cumulative binomial probability by the way.

1 servant = 98.96%
2 servants = 94.19%
3 servants = 83.29%
4 servants = 66.70%
5 servants = 47.77%

Going by pure statistics, you can probably target about 4-5 5* servants per year.

Having said that though, what Gou said is just generally a better idea. Don’t worry about the maths, roll as much as you think is reasonable.

What I personally do is look through the entire year and make a list of everything I want, then put it through a series of 3 criteria.

Roll criteria 1: Is it a strong support servant who will enable more playstyles or more efficient farming (e.g. Merlin, Skadi)?
Roll criteria 2: Is it a strong servant with a unique or fun role or playstyle for which I do not already have an applicable servant (e.g. Cleo, Hokusai)?
Roll criteria 3: Is the servant shortly before another servant that I want more?

Roll criteria explanations

Roll criteria 1 is the most important one. Strong supports always displace all other servants. Even if there is a servant that I was planning on rolling for, if I decide that I want to roll on a banner with a strong support shortly after it, then that servant gets removed from my roll list. An example of this is Reines. I was originally planning on rolling for her because she fills a similar role to Waver, but is a rider so can be used in rider boss challenge quests. When I failed to get Merlin last year though, he became more important than Reines, and since Merlin’s banner is only 2 months after Reines’, Reines was removed from my roll list.

Roll criteria 2 is different for me compared to a lot of other people, because I have very little attraction to waifu culture. Two examples for this are Hokusai and Eresh. Hokusai is a strong servant with an almost unique class who blends well with my already established roster. Additionally I like her stylistically (2nd ascension is better than 3rd ascension), so I decided to roll for her. Since I didn’t get her first time round, I’m also going to roll for her next year. Eresh on the other hand is a servant that I like stylistically, but doesn’t have a unique role in my roster. I already have Karna, and he is capable of doing most things that Eresh can do, albeit requiring more support. Because of this I did not roll for her, although before my Karna spook I was intending to.

Roll criteria 3 is fairly simple. If the servant is immediately before a criteria 1 servant, or a more important criteria 2 servant (Bradamante vs. Bennienma and Hokusai), I don’t roll.

I’d recommend doing something similar, and making your own roll criteria and shortlist. This year I’ve had 4 targets: Hokusai, Skadi, Jeanne D’Archer, and BBikini. Next year I currently have 3: Hokusai, Benienma, and Merlin. I have enough self discipline to not roll for anyone else, so this method works for me.

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Thank you all for the reply. I know SSR can be difficult to get and is always a gamble.

I did go through the servants I am wanting until next year. Which is why I asked the question in the first place. To see if it is realistic or not.

I am just hoping to get
Gilgamesh on September 2020
Semiramis on Feb 2021
Hijikata on April 2021
Merlin on August 2021

3 of which are for NP upgrades and Merlin for Buster support.
While Gilgamesh and Hijikata may be fine on NP1, I feel Semiramis is in need for NP2 at the least, after testing her for quite some time. I probably dont need to explain Merlin.

@andylong1014
Yes that is the link. Bookmarked it this time around haha

No, I am not trying to fill my roster with 5*. I am just trying to upgrade some of my NPs. I have made it my personal goal to try to upgrade every 5* that graced my Chaldea for the first time from each of the 7 class [and +1 for Extra]. The rest of the roster are filled with 1* to 4* including welfares and any potential spooks lol.

If you want some more perspective, after 930 days I have rolled 17 ssr’s, and 7 of those I think were spooks rather than the rate up. This is ignoring my 2 GSSR rolls. That’s an average of 1 ssr every 2 months.

Note that I practically never save more than 30 sq without DW providing a lump sum payout. Sometimes I go months without (4 months between my first 2 ssr’s), and skadi banner gave me 2 ssr’s (spooks only, sigh)

With the number of times I’ve gotten lucky with just a ticket or two multis compared with the number of stories of 1300 sq missing targets… I prefer low expectations for salt management. Sure it sucks missing skadi and I should have tried saving more… But paracelsus just got his rank up, so LONG LIVE THE ARTS LOOP!!!

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Math will only give you false hope and buyers remorse .

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This I agree with. Again, the math is highly misleading. All kinds of shit has happened to me in this game that looks impossible if you try to project it with probability calculations.

More accurately, I suppose it’s that we tend to calculate and take the projected result as a fixed percentage across a set of events, regardless of what we are actually doing.

E.g. Player sees that they have a nearly 100% chance of acquiring their target with 1000 rolls (I’m making this up; I have no idea). Not getting the desired result by roll # 900, they think that it must be coming within the next 100 attempts since they saw a 99.999% chance before they started rolling. Yeah, not so much.

Haha, so true. I was doing FP summons today for bomb making, and in one session of using ~100k FPs, I got 5 3* servants in the first 6 rolls, and continued to get them every 2-3 rolls. Normally I’m lucky to get 2-3 3*s total in that many FPs, not a dozen. The probability of that… :exploding_head:

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To me, math is useful as it helps me picture the bell curve. I am under no illusions that given a probability of X that I will meet or beat it. But it does help inform my decisions. I accumulated as much SQ as I did for Skadi because I knew that the odds are 50% for each 100 rolls. Without that, I might have said “600 SQ sounds good” and I would have been off by more than 50% (took me 960).

In the span of the last, since I’ve been keeping track of a number of things like SQ, I managed to net about 1300 SQ over the past 12 months (went from about 400 to 1700 SQ). This counts that recent infusion of almost 200 SQ, so not sure if that would hold up for the coming year. But I also did use about 390 SQ in rolls during the year, so I could have “saved” more.

So, I’m guessing that as F2P, you might be able to count on about 700 rolls over the course of a year. I guess “on average” you’s expect 7 SSRs and 21 SRs, but YMMV since 700 rolls isn’t enough to smooth out the averages

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Bear in mind that there’s a humongous difference between “are likely to get four 5-star servants over the course of a year” and “are likely to get these particular 5-star Servants” over the same time frame.

Even with how much I whaled last year, the odds of this distribution of spooks must be ridiculously low. Special shout-out to Arjuna and Nightingale: miraculously NP5 without a rolling on any of their rate-up banners.

These are the Servants the gacha has surprised me with since I started playing. None were acquired through GSSR or rate-up save Ivan, whom I forgot to exclude, and 1 copy of Scheherazade (GSSR…).

Oops, I think Medb was an accidental shared rate up. As in, I was new and didn’t read the fine print.

AND Tama Lancer… rate up, but an accident. I’m not good at making this list. Too many damned spooks to sort.

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5 Arjunas
5 Florence
4 Quetz
4 Caster of Nightless City
3 Altera
3 Altria
2 Orion
1 Tesla
1 Tamamo Lancer
1 Altria Lancer

That’s 29 spooks. While I don’t know how many you’ve spent, that’s more than double the number of my SSR from spooks alone.

I did mention about the rate up servant which is 0.7%, not just ‘any 5-star’. If it is any 5 star, would’ve calculated with 1% instead of 0.7%.

I forgot about Tamamo - she’s an accident while rolling for Summer Mordred. Still counts as rate up.

Anyway, the point is that some of those specific combinations, like the Arjunas and the Flos, are statistically improbable even with how much I whaled, yet they happened.

If going f2p, its a good idea to do a sort of budgeting for your resources. Limiting the amount of SQ and tickets you use for one banner is a good way to allow yourself to have a go for a number of them. Someone I know methodically starts with 2-3 banner goals per year then adjusts his resource consumption based on his luck.

I’ll just reinforce what others have said. There’s just no way to determine your own luck before rolls happen. Most of the old timers here probably have experienced either the 1 ticket, 1 10 roll luck and the 700-1500SQ luck. Just hope for the best but also expect the possibility of getting nothing.

I’m not going to convince you, but GSSRs are a surefire way to get SSRs. While the results are not assured, they have the best resource to profit ratio. Anything you get from there will most likely bolster your roster in the long run.

Also: Spooks are a thing. I don’t know why others have an aversion to them but the unexpected can be a gift in the right circumstances. From my 15 SSRs, 5 of them are simply spooks. So yeah, one will never really know what will come to them…

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This is not at all how probability works. Whilst 100 rolls is roughly a 50% chance of getting a rate up 5*, 200 rolls is only a 40% chance of getting 2 rate up 5* s, and 700 rolls is just a 22% chance of getting 7 rate up 5* s.

You are correct that you calculate the odds of getting a single SSR in X rolls that way. But in the aggregate, if the odds of an SSR is 1%, then over many rolls, the expected value is p * n, so 1 per 100.

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