A year of Gacha

I don’t know if anyone’s interested but I’ve been recording my rolling history to keep track of pity and spook rates.

Now that I’m a year in (Got my 1 year badge today!), I figured I’d share:
The details are quite long so I’ll hide that bit:

Names and Numbers

Newbie x 20 = 6* - Siege (Guaranteed) - 5* Red Projekt (Guaranteed).
Standard 6 x2 = no 5/6.
Standard 7 x 2 = Platinum(2) (focus)
Standard 8 x 3 = Lappland(3) (focus)
Forging Steel x 7 = FEater (5)(spook)
Summer Guardians x2 = 6* Siege (2) (spook 6*)
First count: 2,2,3,7,2 = 16 pulls for Siege. (+15 from Newbie)
Standard 9 x 10 = Sora (3) (focus), Sora (7) (focus).
Dancing Lava x 6 = Meteorite (6)(spook)
Standard 10 x 10 = Zima (10) (spook)
Standard 11 x 20 = Sora (4) (spook), Lappland (12) (focus), Nearl (14) (focus), Mayer (18) (spook)
KeeperofL&K x 20 = Skyfire (2) (spook), Firewatch (12) (focus), Mostima (14) (6* focus).
Second Count: 10, 6, 10, 10,10,10,4 = 60 pulls for Mostima.
Standard 12 x 10 (+12) = Liskarm (10) (spook), Warfarin (22) (focus)

Joint Operation x 43 = Ptilopsis (10), Platinum (21), Manticore (23), Platinum (34), Ch’en (43)
Third count: 6, 10, 43 = 59 pulls for Ch’en.

Drillelectric x 10 = Reed (2) (focus), Hoshiguma (7) (blank 6* ), Broca (8) (focus).
Fourth Count: 12, 7 = 19 pulls for Hoshiguma.

Standard 14 x 3 = Texas (spook)

Earthborn Metals (Nian limited) x 60 = Franka (8) (spook), Istina (10) (spook), Hung (15) (focus), Meteorite (20) (spook), Hung (25) (focus), Siege (45) (6* spook), Aak (52) (6* focus), Hung (58) (focus)
1st limited: 45 for Siege. 7 for Aak. 60 total.
Standard 17 x 10 - Reed (1) (spook), Specter (8) (spook), Nearl (9) (focus).
Thousand Headed Arsenal x 20 - Lappland (10 (focus), Lappland (15) (focus), Liskarm 18 (spook)

Piper on the knoll x 18 + 30 = Texas (1) (spook), Zima (7) (focus), Bagpipe (18) (6* focus). Broca (26) (spook), Blaze (37) (6* spook), Istina (44 (spook)
Seventh count: 3, 3, 10, 20, 18 = 54 rolls for Bagpipe.

Eighth count: 10, 9 = 19 rolls for Blaze.
First Snowfall x 51 = Nightmare (2) (spook), Istina (19) (focus), Leonhardt (35) (focus), leonhardt (43) (focus), Rosa (51) (6* focus)
Ninth count: 1,10,51, = 62 for Rosa
Standard Banner 21 x1 = (1) Executor (spook)
Lisa of the Valley banner x4 = (4) leonhardt (spook)
Standard 22 x70 = (9) Ptilopsis (focus), astesia (34) (focus), red (39) (focus). red (41) focus), angelina (52) (6* focus), astesia (69)(focus).
Tenth count - 1,4, 52 = 57 for Angelina
Gravitational Vortex x 32 - Beeswax (3) (focus), Ayerscarpe (12) (spook), Platinum (15) (spook). Beeswax (21)(focus), Beeswax (31) (focus)
Past Illusion x31: Mostima (7) (6* spook), Greythroat (11) (spook), Silence (12) (spook), Shamare (15) (focus), Ptilopsis (18) (focus), Phantom (22) (6* focus). Shamare (31) (focus)

Eleventh count - 18, 32, 7 = 57 for Mostima

Twelfth count - 15 = 15 rolls for Phantom

Cremation’s last wish x70: Elysium (8) (focus), Ptilopsis (12) (spook), Elysium (23) (focus), Elysium (24) (focus), W (25) (6Focus), Elysium (30) (focus), Elysium (40) (focus), Manticore (41) (spook), Ptilopsis (49) (spook), Mayer (73) (spook), Elysium (80) (focus), W (81) (focus 6)
2nd limited - 25 for W. 56 for W = 81 total.
Standard 26 x 8 = Abstestos (8) (spook)
Standard 27 x 10 = Ceobe (1) (6* focus), Swire (13) (focus)

Fifteenth count - 9, 8,1 = 18 rolls for Ceobe
Unbound Reflux x10. Siege (10) (6* spook).

Sixteeth count - 12, 10 - 22 for Siege.

Standard 28 x3 = Croissant (3) (spook).
Standard 29 x 10 = Istina (10) )focus)
Standard 30x10 = Zima (10) (focus)
Heart of Steel x10 = Eunectus (8) (focus)

Seventeenth count: 3, 10, 10, 8 = 31 for Eunectus

Standard 31 x4 = Sora (4) focus)
Standard 32 x6 = Beeswax (6)(spook)

Eighteenth count: 2,4,6

Conclusions:

Overall 5* focus/spook: 41/31 (+4 from Joint Operation)
Overall 6* focus/spook: 7/4 (Ch’en from Joint Op doesn’t count, nor does Hoshiguma who dropped on the Beeswax/Chiave banner)
Overall 6* Limited focus/spook: 3/1

Seems like I’ve been very lucky here, so I keep expecting spooks now. My 5* count was 20/20 and then suddenly skewed massively. I started rolling guarantees to see if it would shift back, but no luck - I imagine this going to hurt me eventually.

Total rolls: 634 = 17x6*, 76x5*

Six star drop rate: 16, 60, 59, 19, 45, 7, 54, 19, 62, 57, 57, 15, 25, 56, 18, 22, 31.
(cummulative): 16,76,135,154,199,206,260,279,341,398,455,470,495,551,569,591,622
The only single digit was Aak lol.
34.5 rolls is the supposed average. Mine at 634 rolls for 17 (post Newbie Gacha) is 37.3.
So I’m a little unlucky here, but I guess it’s worth it if your spook rate is lower.

Feel free to comment or ask questions if you want to discuss anything.
Good luck with your rolls!~~
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9 Likes

That’s some interesting data here, that could give a eyesight on the average and up and down of luck in a year.

Is th e 34.5 number something some heavy gamer came up with by calculating on a long span of time ? (maybe from CN server ?)

I can’t add much myself since I never reccorded anything , aside from my Noobie Banner that was absurdly lucky to the point some people could hate me haha

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I never record anything except my present pity… which I lost count of :fgo_gudako:

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I think my current pity is at 0? I got Mostima off a single so it should be 0 :fgo_seibathink:

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I think I did 10 to 15 rolls after getting Ceobe so maybe that much? Eh, it doesn’t matter, I’ll treat my pity as 0 for now, I’ll not be rolling for a pretty damn long time anyways

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CN Anniversary should be in about a month yeah? Wonder who they’ll decide to release

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Look at all those numbers, I wonder what they mean

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Kal’tsit and another reunion member? :fgo_gudako:

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Double Limited with Kal’tsit and Talulah :feh_rein:

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Why stop there? Quadruple limited with Talulah, Kal’tsit, Closure and a new operator :fgo_gudako:

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Talulah, Kal’tsit, Closure and Ines :fgo_buster:

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Oh and on the topic itself, this is pretty much as far as recording my rolling history goes, cuz I literally recorded them lol

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And then everyone will just kill hg for releasing so many new and limited ops at once :fgo_gudako:

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They already released like 3 within a really short timespan, why not 4 more?

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Oh neat! I’ll watch it after work.

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Inb4 they realised limited units is the way to gain more income so more and more new ops become limited :fgo_bbsmile:

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Technically more than 3, since the entire R6 crew minus Tachanka are Limited. :fgo_gudako:

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Wtf?! I did not know that…

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:fgo_gudako:

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Good thing I don’t play R6 :fgo_gudako:

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