I saw an article about how hard it is to get shinies or 4☆IVs from eggs, so really surprised if no one actually wrote about this here.
This question appeared on the 3rd day of Sinnoh event, when i realised that after hatching 60+ eggs i got no shinies and too poor IVs, and such situation about many of my friends. I know only 2 people out of 300 active players in my city who hatched a shiny Riolu, and few people who hatched at least 1 shiny while the event. The question is: why are shinies and good IVs are now so hard to hatch?
Now there will be more statistics:
I cant say the certain number of my event hatches, but i have videos about 67~ of them. I hatched 10 Riolu and 5 Gible (these are the ones im focused on). I was throwing away many of pokemon from eggs as they were usless for me, and the next calculations about the 35 pokemon left after cleaning my box. I deleted non- Gible or Riolu and non- faraway pokemon for trades.
IV > 89 (perfect for me): 2 (1 Riolu and 1 Gible here)
IV > 80 (ok): 13 (3 Riolu and 2 Gible here)
IV = 80(not good): 9 (3 Riolu here)
IV < 80(poor): 7 (2 Riolu here)
IV near 60(so sad): 4 (2 Gible and 1 Riolu here)
Many(13) ok pokemon, new players say they’re just fine, but for many old trainers IVd below 91 are not enough. So count it as neutral. 80 and below are non-3☆ - there are 20 of them. 2 very good ones, but no 100%.
So we have 2+13neutral vs 20. Not good. 1+3 vs 6 Riolu and 1+2 vs 2 Gible. That means that ive hatched only 5% really good IVs +37% ok IVs and 58% of bad ones.
What about general? My last shiny hatch was on 1 Dec 2019, and 6 shinies out of 805 eggs hatched. Its 0,75% chance of shiny pokemon from eggs for me. 1 of hatched 805 is 4☆ - so 0,12% chance. And now i just got another question?
How was i supposed to hatch a shiny one from egg? I had to try at least 135 eggs! But there was no guarantee this would work. Ok, and now take my 67~ hatched eggs and 10 Riolu. If there was a 15% chance to hatch it, then it was a 0,105% chance to hatch a shiny Riolu. 0,056% for Gible. I cant say much of good IVs as i throw away many pokemon with good IVs, and now only can speak about faraway ones, but there are too little of them.
About getting different shinies: i sometimes get the same non-CD shinies and even in a row. Im pretty sure there is a kind of Random Seed in this game like in many others, so it gets harder to get new shinies and more likely to get the shinies you already have.
I want to discover the real chances here so if you are interested, too, post here about:
How many eggs you have hatched in general
How many shinies and 4☆ you got from eggs
This would really help me. Also if you are here to complain about game injustice, soon there will be another one my topic for all the moaning
Another help for me is tagging PoGo Gamepress admins here (i dont know them but id be thankful if they see this post, maybe this will be good for the ones who do statistics).