Aha! (Revised banner predictions after announcement on M.Byleth) [corrected with L.Lyn]

IS is making an irregular move. According to what people told me about the Ayra incident, they’re basically doing the same thing minus the blunder because they’re revealing the information before any banners release.

M.Byleth will appear on the mythic 8%, but he is not a mythic. That maybe means we get a colourless mythic or no new mythic, which seems less likely to me but also possible because they have already revealed the new unit of the banner and might not even make a video until early August. [I previously said we get a green mythic, and then Kirchou pointed out L.Lyn, which I missed on a misread of my sheet.]

Accordingly, my updated predictions for the coming 8%:
Red: L.Marth (confirmed), M.Byleth (confirmed), T.Elise (almost guaranteed)
Blue: L.Azura (confirmed), Fjorm (confirmed), T.Ryoma (almost guaranteed)
Green: L.Hector (confirmed), L.Lyn (confirmed), probably V.Mist
Colourless: Eir (confirmed), L.Alm (confirmed), new mythic?! (or Caineghis)

In my original predictions this was one of the most killer 8%s in history; now it’s just strong. L.Lyn makes greens a little weaker (admittedly, spd tactic is still 5* exclusive, but I find the other tactics a bit more useful and Seth is 3*-4* available too, and I’m also expecting spd tactic on a free unit any GHB or TT now. Maybe even this 3H GHB unit?) Reds are fairly strong with M.Byleth and T.Elise; colourless has Eir and L.Alm. They’re definitely pulling hard at our orbs in anticipation of CYL3. So there’s a fairly high probability that the new mythic will be powerful.

If we get a new mythic, I say anima mythic for two reasons. The recent addition of rewards exclusively for defense scoring (and if you didn’t see my commentary on it and why it’s nothing but bait to pull for mythics, see The new AR rewards for defense scoring are bad for the game ), and there is demand for a new anima mythic because Naga is making Duma look pretty stupid.

As for the stats on M.Byleth, I’m going to use Fates as precedent. M.Corrin and F.Corrin both have medium-high atk, spd, def, and HP with somewhat lower res. (The Robins also got this treatment.) Adrift Corrins gave M.Corrin a bit more atk in exchange for a bit of spd and res. He also has 1 higher HP and 1 lower def; I’m not sure what to make of the def part but marginally higher HP makes sense to me. It’s just my sense of the way IS attempts to portray the physical aspects of gender, the male being a bit more stocky and muscular (hence, higher atk and HP) whereas the female is a bit lighter (and consequently faster). The res part…arguably is just a matter of being where the leftover BST goes, but I think it’s also maybe an expression of a belief that females are somehow more sensitive and attuned to certain metaphysical things, ergo more fluent in self-protection against attacks of this nature.

Anyways, let’s review.
F.Byleth was shown in the trailer to have 40HP. My initial guesses were 34/39/30/25, before I knew that M.Byleth would have the same prf. Now that we see M.Byleth’s kit, I think that’s going to be closer to his statline. F.Byleth will have more spd, a bit less atk, and…not sure about the defensive stats.
M.Byleth doesn’t come with wrath or any extra atk in his A-slot so I’m suspecting 35 atk. If we count chill spd as a +7 to him then I’m going to guess it puts him around 46, so I’ll stick to 39 spd. He will probably have at least 1HP higher than F.Byleth, so maybe we’re looking at 41HP 35/39/29/24? Or some possibility this pair might even get boosted BST because make the avatar OP so give him about 3 extra points in defenses and 1 in offense. F.Byleth I’m now going to say 45 spd with fury 4, so 41 spd IV, something like 51 atk with weapon and fury 4, so 31-32 atk (possibly even less because she comes with wrath), probably 27+ res? Expecting relatively even defensive spread because they gave her fury 4.
So here are my best guesses:
M.Byleth 41HP, 35/39/29/24
F.Byleth 40HP, 32/41/28/27

On another note, I am now 99% convinced that Ruptured Sky (AKA rend heaven) will be inheritable. In the announcement, there is a list indicating that it is unusable by dragons and beasts.

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And here I am with 0orbs because of absolutely bad summoning luck when I could’ve stacked myself with Lector merges, rally def/res+ fodder and potentially the next OP mythic hero…
Sad life

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I thought L!Lyn was confirmed to return this month, did she’s delayed or I’m misremembering? :thinking:

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Hmm I have a feeling based on the kits M!Byleth will be more bulky and F!Byleth more offencive.
And they might be a bit more spread appart than the other duos, given they share a color unlike the OG Robins and Adrift Corrins

My altered take on their stats:
M: 41 Hp, 32/36/30/28
F: 40 Hp 35/40/27/25

Something like that.

Btw, my prediction for Dimitri if you’re interested
40 Hp, 36/30/34/17

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If you are right ,my orbs are in danger :feh_notlikethis:
Wait I have to recap
Red : have Marth,want byleth so hard, and…Elise , ah well exists
Blue : both two girls are very good, I want them, azura I need a flying dancer and I want build Fjorm
Green: love Hector, however I actually don’t need him and mist is useless for me (if we are getting M.byleth we are probably getting Sothis )
Colourless: L alm,if we weren’t close to CYL I will snipe for him

So it seems the best M/L banner so far, however I must resist! I can do this (hope so, maybe no…I’m sorry )

The only way they even have a chance of getting at my orbs is if the new Mythic is from Tellius! Everything else has absolutely no shot of enticing me over Brave Micaiah.

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I’m a little disappointed that Owain won’t be on this or the next Legendary/mythic banner, but at the same time, I’m also glad, because this way

I can focus on summoning and only summoning blues (Naga’s banner)

Oh thanks for the correction. My sheet was a bit unclear so I misread it.

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Did you see my analysis on the “Thoughts on 3H Banner” thread? That was basically my first guess at his statline

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Oh yeah, that’s right.
Though I did also post it seperately at the same time.

Tried to see if I could find the map where Dimitri was fighting at, no luck though. But given that he doesn’t get doubled and Edelgard does… Hints at there statline.

Still, we can’t be sure. Worst case senario Edel and Dimitri have mid 20ies spd with about 20-22 res.

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I personally really hope M!Byleth is a little bit tankier without dropping his offensive spread. But this is good information to have.

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The banner looks okay. I’m actually not super impressed with it if you’re a player that’s been active in the game for a long time though.

Red - A lot of people are going to buy Three Houses, making that the easiest option to get Male Byleth. Hell, if you converted the $60 to orb costs, getting a copy of Three Houses at the same time seems like a massive steal compared to actually spending orbs here just to get Byleth. Marth is okay and Elise is meh. This seems like a weak color to me if you’re only looking for DC fodder and are already buying Three Houses.

Blue - This is a good color for new players. If you already have Legendary Azura, then wow is this pretty bad if you’re not interested in merging Fjorm. Ryoma has okay fodder, but he sucks as a unit. Just use Est, Shanna, Catria or Clair. The ranged summer blue flying units on the current banners right now also put him to shame in terms of usefulness.

Green - The only really good unit here is Hector, for both merges and dc fodder. I suppose if you want to pull on red + green for DC fodder, this might be an efficient sniping combination if that’s all you’re interested in. Mist is like the worst consulation prize ever if she’s on this banner. If the Mythic actually appears here, then I can see Green getting much better to pull on.

Colourless - If you care about scoring high in competitive modes, this is the color you want to pull on. Alm for Rokker Sieges, AR, and Allegiance Battles, Eir for AR, and the new mythic hero for AR. All the units are good to use and for fodder as well. Seems like an easy option to recommend sniping on if you didn’t get your copies of Eir or Alm earlier. This is the time if you want to build up both of these units.

Other than colorless, I’m not really that impressed. I will be passing since I have two 40+2 Eirs and a +atk 40+1 Alm already. I’m good. I could use Mystic Boost fodder, but I’m not going to spend half of my 400 orbs to get that. CYL3 is just more important than adding more merges for me at this point. It is a pretty good banner for DC fodder though - you have good odds to collect a fair amount of DC if you actually want to throw 400 orbs at it, but the consultation prizes in red and green are pretty bad so I won’t be doing that :/

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F! Byleth has 32 Defence.

I don’t have too much to say, just other than the fact that if this is accurate I might have to rethink which colors I’m gonna pull on the banner. I was originally thinking blue and green, blue obviously for L!Azura and Fjorm and green since I thought that was going to be the new Mythic hero. Now I’m second guessing green since I’m not sure trying to pull another L!Lyn would be worth it (I have one with -ATK +SPD and I originally wanted to build her, but I’m not it’d be worth pulling for better IVs). Hell I might just try to get a L!Azura and be on my merry way.

Other than that, how do you people figure this stuff out, it’s amazing. XD

You can do it friend. I have been feigning summoning on the Summer Returns banner to see how this one turns out, and that banner has Gunnthra, my favorite.

Believe in yourself, you can do it!

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Thank you so much, every little encourage make a bond with a person, it’s really important to me I don’t want to disappoint anyone, I will do this (so a big fuck you to Dany/edelgard, maybe next time )^^

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Yeah, I posted this before our discussion.
Honestly that just proves how scattershot speculation can be.

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I wouldn’t recommend anyone to pull for DC on this banner unless they like the other units sharing the colour. DC is somewhere around 1 in 37 when pulling reds and greens, and 170-ish orbs for a DC fodder is a terrible price, especially when Hector will appear on a 4% or two, where I think it’s around 1 in 20 to pull him from a green stone? (probably better, actually. Definitely <100 orbs average for a DC fodder)

I still have nightmares about the Ayra banner.

Was this leaked or something?