FE3H Most likely defectors? (P O L L S)

So I had a random thought while watching more of the supports between characters in the Forging Bonds event, and I’ll touch on it a bit more in a second, but it led me to an interesting question.

Of the main characters in FE3H, who do you guys think are the most likely to defect to one of the other armies?

For example: Sylvain often mentions how much he hates his Crest and that his brother hated him for having it for no more reason than he was born. Because of this, I can really see Sylvain siding with Edelgard in the war, ideologically. Similarly, given that the war was primarily between Adrestia and Faerghus/the Church, I cannot see Felix willing to fight for Dimitri, given how much he seems to hate him.

Ground rules:

  1. Byleth is a non-factor. This is based solely on the characters themselves, so no “Alois would follow Byleth to all of them,” or “X wants to kill Byleth, so they’d be against them.”
  2. Whichever route you think is correct is a non-factor. Again, this is about the characters. Example, I can see Petra possibly siding with Faerghus to liberate Brigid from Imperial control.
  3. Three votes per person, max, split among all other houses and Church staff.
  4. Lorda and Retainers are off the table. Abyss remains neutral territory in the war, and thusly the Ashen Wolves are also off the table since they have no previous loyalties.
  5. We’re ignoring characters who appear in other routes as enemies if they are not recruited. I.E. Manuela and Hanneman appearing as Imperial Generals in Azure Moon.
  6. Units only usable in a single route (I.E. Jeritza and Gilbert) are also off the table, given their apparent unchanging loyalties. For this loyalty reason, characters like Catherine are also excluded (given that her loyalty is explicitly - and unwaceringly - “Rhea.”)
  7. This is about leaving one faction to join a Kingdom. Since the Church joins with a Kingdom in every route except its own, Church members can defect to a Kingdom, but not vice-versa.

MOST LIKELY TO SIDE WITH THE EMPIRE

  • Felix
  • Ashe
  • Sylvain
  • Mercedes
  • Annette
  • Ingrid
  • Lorenz
  • Raphael
  • Ignatz
  • Lysithea
  • Marianne
  • Leonie
  • Hanneman
  • Manuela
  • Alois
  • Shamir

0 voters

MOST LIKELY TO SIDE WITH THE KINGDOM

  • Ferdinand
  • Linhardt
  • Caspar
  • Bernadetta
  • Dorothea
  • Petra
  • Lorenz
  • Raphael
  • Ignatz
  • Lysithea
  • Marianne
  • Leonie
  • Hanneman
  • Manuela
  • Alois
  • Shamir

0 voters

MOST LIKELY TO SIDE WITH THE ALLIANCE

  • Ferdinand
  • Linhardt
  • Caspar
  • Bernadetta
  • Dorothea
  • Petra
  • Felix
  • Ashe
  • Sylvain
  • Mercedes
  • Annette
  • Ingrid
  • Hanneman
  • Manuela
  • Alois
  • Shamir

0 voters

My selections
Empire:
Like I said, I imagine that Felix and Sylvain would side with the Empire - Sylvain because he hates Crests and Felix to stop Dimitri - but I also think that Shamir could be bought from the Church. That said, Leonie mighf sidd with them because she’s obsessed witg Jeralt, who had no love for the Church. I’ not sure which one gets .y third vote.

Kingdom:
Petra, who could fight to liberate Brigid, as I said before.
Lysithea, given the Empire’s manipulating of Those Who Slither (and the appearance of cooperation).
Not sure who I’d pick for my third, honestly, but I’m kind of leaning towards Ferdinand, who wohld probably oppose Edelgard on moral grounds.

Alliance:
Dorothea hates the war, and the Alliance is the most neutral territory.
With the Alliance not really picking a side, I can see Mercedes going there hoping to be able to help as many as she could with less if a stigma of being “the enemy.”
No idea who my third is. Annette may want to follow Mercie, but she’s also pretty loyal to Faerghus.

2 Likes
Multiple Route spoilers or smth

In terms of betrayals, I included the canonical betrayals (that I could remember), the scrapped betrayals from Azure Moon, and likely other characters

Iirc both Ashe and Lorenz defect from your army at one point or another, and have to be recruited back through defeating them on their respective maps

Both Felix and Annette had a scrapped betrayals, with Annette siding with the Empire to protect her mother and Felix avenging Rodrigue (weirdly enough) Despite Felix’s sudden care for Rodrigue’s death which didn’t really fit into the past characterization of him, it’s pretty easy to see him betraying Dimitri

Shamir is a mercenary first and foremost, and she has no particular obligation to any side besides a debt to Rhea, and it’s not a stretch by any means to imagine her working for the other side if it’s favorable

Some of my other choices involve characters without as strong ties to their house leader, faction, or friends/relatives, or those with motives that would reasonably outweigh house loyalty (eg. Petra not being of the Empire at all, or Lysithea’s crest issue

Those are just my thoughts though

4 Likes

I see Lysithea siding with the Empire to put an end to the crest system to ensure no one has to go through what she had to.
And Marianne is so close to the church that the kingdom closest to it is Faerghus. She would most likely join the Holy Kingdom.

7 Likes
Empire
  • Sylvain’s family was destroyed by his crest, and his womanizing is mainly due to the fact that, because of his crest, no girl will ever see him as anything more than money to marry into. I would expect him to believe in Edelgard’s ideals the most.

  • Lysithea would be sympathetic to Edelgard because of their similar backstories and most of her misfortune coming from her second crest.

  • Marianne rounds out the “I hate having a crest” club, and would support Edelgard because she wants to live free of her “curse.”

  • Honorable mentions - Alois and Leonie for their primary motivations being loyalty to Jeralt and Byleth who respectively distrust and openly oppose Rhea on CF, Hanneman for siding with the Empire by default in Dimitri’s paralogue and disliking the crest system for what happened to his sister, Ashe for holding a grudge toward the church over the Lonato incident, Lorenz for his family siding with the Empire by default in most routes.

Kingdom
  • Ferdinand believes it is his duty to guide Edelgard and oppose her when she goes too far, so I can see him taking issue with the war and fighting her directly.

  • Caspar would probably see Faerghus as the most just faction and agree with their notions of loyalty and chivalry.

  • Shamir is one of the few characters in the poll who ever expresses any loyalty toward Rhea. Despite ultimately considering herself a mercenary she’s probably the one with the most reason to actually side with the Kingdom.

Alliance
  • Felix I doubt would agree with Edelgard, but he’s also rather disillusioned toward Dimitri and Faerghus. I can see him defecting to the Alliance to fight Edelgard under Claude’s more objective view of the conflict.

  • Linhardt would join the faction least involved in the conflict to avoid as much fighting as possible.

  • Petra would strongly agree with Claude’s worldview, and would probably trust him most to create a world where Brigid is treated as equal with neighboring nations.

4 Likes

I limited myself to one per option. HARD MODE!

Empire & Lorenz. He’s a basic B and he loves nobility crap. He’s just mad that Lysithea uses Thyrus better.

Kingdom & Ferdinand - Now he’s also a bit on his high horse in regards to nobility, but he wants to act in the best interests of Fodlan. He’d take a look at Edel and go, “NOPE! I BEE-LEAVE I should head out!” (did you see that double reference?! BEES? LEAVING? Dang, I’m proud of that one).

Alliance & Caspar - He knows he’s not in line to take over his family’s domain. He’s got nothing to lose. He thinks lineage is stupid anyways. He’s out! Deuces!

3 Likes

Empire:
Darth Vader
Lysithea because TWSITD
Sylvain for the exact crest reason you mentioned
Shamir. I voted Shamir for all because although she is slightly indebted to the church, she is at heart a mercenary. She can go anywhere because her loyalties are the most flexible. It has nothing to do with Byleth, and everything to do with her own character.

Kingdom.
Highly disagree with all the Ferdi votes. He’s very loyal to the empire, and wants in some ways to prove himself better than Edel, but he doesn’t want to be enemies with her, in part because it seems he wants to prove this to her. Without Byleth, I don’t see him defecting.
Anyway, my own kingdom votes.
Petra, for an independent Brigid.
Shamir, for the same reason as above.

Alliance.
Petra and Shamir, for the same reasons as above.
Hanneman because IDK.

Also: Hot Take: I could actually see Edel siding with the Alliance after she’s defeated as some sort of weird prisoner of war type thing. Assuming she actually talks to Claude instead of never telling anyone anything, their agendas aren’t actually incompatible, and Edel never seems to have any love/interest in power or the empire itself. As long as Claude destroys the Church (and he does want to start a new regime anyway, and I doubt the church is helping the Almyra situation; it is literally only the religion of the alliance, empire, and kingdom; that can’t be a good sign) I could see her joining him to kill TWSITD.

3 Likes

My only note is:

Felix I doubt would agree with Edelgard

Way I see it, it’s not so much him siding with Edelgard as it is him sodong against Dimitri. And since the war is primarily Faerghus vs the Empire, witg Leicester just kind of being there and figuring out who it wants to support, the Empire is the most aligned with fighting Dimitri.

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Not a hot take at all. In fact, Claude even laments the fact that they have to go through Edelgard because he believes their goals are not so different. I can totally see him trying to forge an alliance with her.

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Well Claude was never the problem there, Edel is/was.

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I know, but I’m just saying that the option was always open for her and she wouldn’t have been turned away; that she’d be welcomed as an ally by someone who acknowledged they shared a similar goal.

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Honestly, Edel’s plan was just not great; it should have been done in the reverse order. Take control of the Empire, then reveal the truth of the tragedy of Duscar to Dimitri. Dimitri would immediately take the kingdom to attack TWSITD, but as we’ve seen they’d already infiltrated the kingdom significantly. Dimitri would take severe losses, and Edel wouldn’t have to deal with them constantly at her back. After he was weakened, then attack the Church. Whether or not Dimitir helps defend doesn’t matter at that point, as they all would be weakened.

Forming an Alliance behind his back with Claude would be ideal, as the Alliance was the least effected by TWSITD and would have the most power remaining. Clean up the Church/Kingdom, and help Claude. Fodlan would be united under a Church and TWSITD free nation, and Claude could make it have open borders.

The funny part of all that is Edel and Claude would probably argue over which of them had to lead after the war, with neither wanting the power. Both step down at the end of their storylines and vanish even when they do win.

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I’m honestly shocked at the number who think Lysithea most likely to join the empire given their associations with TWSITD.

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But Edelgard doesn’t like TWSITD either

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Crimson Flower Spoilers along with Edelgard and Lysithea Spoilers

After the war, Edelgard declares war on TWSITD and tries to get rid of them, she never agreed with them, they just had similar goals so she found an advantage in joining them

Also they messed with Edelgard and her family too so Lysithea would most likely join for her and Edelgard’s similar trauma imo

3 Likes

Yeah, I know, but I guess I just think it’s hard to imagine that being very reassuring when we know how many of their visible forces are made up of TWSITD mages and beasts. If the character in question is defecting, doesn’t this have to take place in or around the start of the war phase? As a character on her own, and not recruited into Black Eagles by Byleth, where is Lysithea getting any impression of the Empire’s army other than what’s marched on the monastery and elsewhere?

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Not only that, in their supports Lysithea figures Edel out. She’s shocked, because of how differently Edel acts than her, but Edel revealed early in her supports more knowledge than she should have about her condition. Combined with Edel’s hair color, Lysithea basically figures out everything she’s been through, and Edel tacitly admits it.

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Dimitri would immediately take the kingdom to attack TWSITD

they all would be weakened.

That’s the problem, Edelgard didn’t want TWS killed immediately, she wanted them to help her eliminate a corrupt, self-serving Church and then be destroyed when they were no longer useful, since they were just as bad; and Dimitri would have been far less likely to help fight them, thus weakening the Empire against the Knights of Seiros. TWS were a covert group that could easily be crushed by an army, but another army is a much taller order. The Church’s army was the real problem. She never planned to go to war with Faerghus, they just chose to side with the Church.

The funny part of all that is Edel and Claude would probably argue over which of them had to lead after the war

tenor (6)

Seriously, though, it’d probably be El. Claude doesn’t want power, and El want to hold it long enough to reform the system and find a worthy successor, so she wants it just anlittle more for temporary reasons.

2 Likes

While this is true, Lysithea has no way of knowing this at the time, it’s only after supporting with El that she learns all this.

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So the real answer is Ferdie and Lorenz would end up in charge.

Also I know that she used them for her own purposes, but doing it this way would be better. And Dimitri would absolutely go to war with TWS if she told/revealed to him that they were behind Duscar

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Exactly why I didn’t vote for her, myself.

1 Like