Gacha and SSR Probability

So far, I’ve saved up 634 SQ in anticipation of two Servants I really want next year: Skadi and Napoleon.

However, having not rolled once since the CCC event (other than tickets) I’m really itching to roll for some other Servants at some point.

My question is two-fold: 1) approximately how much SQ will we be receiving between now and Skadi, and 2) how much is a safe amount to save up for Skadi and Napoleon before I can indulge a little?

I obviously know gacha can be unpredictable (I blew 300 SQ on Melt and got nothing but 3 Suzuka), but I’m just looking for rough estimates.

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Like 106 SQ/21 tix through the end of the year, and you can add up the rest for up through Skadi-sama. Resource worth bookmarking IMO.

Also, good luck with them both! Skadi-sama’s my main goal for like… the next several months, lol. Hurts to not roll sometimes but oh well she’s worth it.

In terms of SSR pulls, here’s a handy-dandy graph, for some real “fun” probabilities to consider.

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Well, the probability of getting a rate-up SSR is 0.7% per single roll, so in theory you need to do ~143 single rolls/14 x10 rolls on average to get that servant. Meaning you should have ~420 SQ per banner for a high probability to get them, and even then RNG can make you need significantly more (ofc, they can also arrive much earlier).

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You know, looking at the cost value here, it makes GSSR seem like a much better bargain than I’d thought.

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Sometimes the gacha is cruel, I think I only got one Melt after I passed the 700 SQ mark, with NP5+ Suzuka and Passionlip along the way, if I were in your position and didn’t feel particularly lucky I’d kinda double what you have now to feel safe.

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The value is lit as heck, it’s so true. 30 SQ for Gil, last time? Goodness me, TYVM.

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Lol I think I spent almost 1000 SQ and never got Melt I was pretty damn salty about it for awhile

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Presses F twice

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After my alt spent over 1970 SQ without pulling a single SSR… ever… I drowned in salt and became the Dead Sea. :fgo_jeannu:

I made a pretty lengthy post on the mathematics of gacha pulling some time ago in this thread: Saint Quartz Results: A discussion of Saint Quartz to servants gained

Long story short, you can use https://shipfu.moe/fgo/ in conjunction with the Event Compendium mentioned earlier to do the dirty work of calculating your odds for you.

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Looking at that graph Unlimited Quartz Hurts my soul. I got a surprise bonus and got the rare chance to splurge my way to 550. Was going to try at Okita (or Scathach) if shes on the thanksgiving banner or melt if not but that…eesh.

Gssr actually doesn’t help in this case,last new year I got a dupe (Ozy),then Arjuna,then I got those two specifically when rollin for Memes. Scared I’ll wind up not getting Oki,save,and miss Skadi. Cruel indeed.

Hahaha in that case I am the luckiest so please allow me to rub salt on the wound although it sounds unbelievable I manged to pull waver,jack,einkidu ,pravati, Helena and 3 Gil caster only by using 300 quartz :grin:

However I really want musachi so i am saving for her I would appreciate it if someone can tell if there is an upcoming banner for her on the JP server

Dont worry your luck will reach F-rank after this. Congratulations!
I hope Musashi avoids you and others will flex their rolls on you. (joking, but dont be such a bragger, because luck can change at any time). As far as I know Musashi has a banner on New Years.

I see thank you perhaps I will have 1000 SQ by Zen

I got kinda curious and counted how much sq and tickets we get just from events from the Christmas rerun onward,totaled around 798 effective after ticket conversion. Obviously we get even more from login,total login bonus,and master missions as well as the tickets we get from the shop (standard and limited).

Ain’t much but I hope it helps dude.

I really hope so

“Never let your number of Saint Quartz exceed three.”
—Albert Einstein

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