Have lucky trade chances been nerfed?

Hi all, I know the chances of a trade becoming lucky is 5%. Recently though I have traded over 100 pokemon with my partner and no luckies. Am i just very unlucky?

1 Like

I traded 50 or more Porygon yesterday, got one lucky 14/15/15 level 30. Just what I saw yesterday. I’ve made 13,585 trades, not too many lucky friend trades…mostly with alts…20 or so local lucky friends pending. 800+ luckies/13,585 about 5.8% total throughout

I’ve been wondering the same with lucky friend chance, seems to happen so rarely these days even though I interact with 8-10 best friends daily. I understood the chances to be roughly 1%, maybe 1.5%, but current rates would leave me with a rate of 0.1% in the last couple of months.

But as the chances are fairly rare anyway, until it turns into a months-long drought I tend to chalk it up to crappy luck.

Following this thread with interest. …

Some days you trade 100 Pokémon and will not see many (or any) luckies, the other day you do less then 20 trades and have 4 luckies… so having a few days no luckies is nothing more then a streak of bad luck, your good luck will come (hopefully with Pokémon you can use :wink: ).


When i tried to trade for a better PvP IV A-marowak 2 weeks ago, i got 3 luckies out of 7 trades. All those 3 luckies were maro from 2018/19.

For science sake I’ll do 100 trades right now. Some of the consistent mass traders can have a decent pulse on the odds. All the laws of average talk is great, but it would be pretty easy for them to adjust the lucky-meter from 5% to 3.5%

Jynx! First one I did after I said that: 15/13/14

3 luckies, inconclusive as expected. Keep in mind if you exclusively trade recently caught pokemon, it would seem possible for Niantic to at some point lower the lucky odds. They already change the percent possibility in a broader sense.

1 Like

Unsure. One day I traded 90 Pokemon and only 1 became lucky. The next day I traded 80 Pokemon and 8 of them became lucky. There’s a lot of randomness on it.

I did a bunch of trades Sunday and got 1 lucky. Did 100 Monday and got 3. So far today, not near 100 yet today and have 4. That trading and evolving hour of a Community Day makes me wonder how many people luck out getting 2 or 3 luckies in their first 20 trades…luck problem negated by making community days barely worthwhile

Finished my limit for today and got 7 luckies out of 100 trades

Yes you are x)
Don’t worry, it’s definitely over the lucky rate but 100 isnt a huge number on a 5% probability.
It will normalize the bigger the trade numbers are. Besides haven’t you gotten back to back luckies before? It works that way :p
Thankfully, for important trades we got lucky friendships. May be rare but with lots of 4♡ buddies the odds up a lot.

My long term Lucky rate (since they were introduced) is slightly over 6% but I have noticed less frequent luckies over the past few months. However, today I had 3 Luckies all of which included at least one of the promoted spawns (ie Snorlax, Skarmory, Hariyama). Getting multiple lucky skarmory is painful as High IVs are a waste and I as hoping for another good PVP skarmory trade. I believe the “5%” rate that some are quoting is based on very old research so we may question its current relevance.

Today I’ve done 3 trades and 3 are lucky, pokemon caught in the past 2 or 3 days.

1 Like