How many Boxes can I get with x apples

Found this on reddit and thought it’d be iseful to some of you guys.

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Short answer:

  • 1 box per Gapple.

This will vary slightly by level & number of CEs carried, but it’s a good rule of thumb.

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Last year’s gilfest made me want to tap on the spin button even when I have no tickets left. I wonder why…XP

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Pfft, yeah good luck with that. You’d need to max out drop CE’s to even get close, and sometimes the dropping in the first place gets nerfed b/c FK RNG!

Typically took me 160 AP to get a full box when I was in my stride.

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You know that’s the point of lotto, right?

Yeah, but you don’t start out that way.

:fgo_bblaugh:

Some people’s RNG really sucks.

I know a few people who’ve only gotten one, during the entire lotto last year.

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A “rule of thumb” is not expected to cover the far tails of the RNG distribution, and it’s not reasonable to focus on bad luck when the reply right after mine reported 620 boxes from 472 apples.

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Nothing against you personally, but I’ll believe it when I see it for myself. Though I’m going to have to watch the start of my FGA sessions because I’m going to have to retroactively update when I get enough CE’s to MLB them as I go along…

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FYI that result is uncommonly good luck for previous lottos. Unless the drop rate of the CE changed, it’s definitely an outlier.

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3 or maybe even 4 standard deviations from the norm.

:fgo_gudako:

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Last year I got 15 ce drops in 150 boxes. It would have been perfect, except that fully 12 of them were damage boost CEs not drop boost. I mlb’ed at 8 during round 1 because I could only do a 4 slot team anyway and had 2 whole rounds for another drop… It never happened and my 5 slot round 2 comp was rendered useless.

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I’ll repeat myself, because it appears that nobody is actually reading what I wrote generally, and is instead focusing on statistical outliers:

A “rule of thumb” is not expected to cover the far tails of the RNG distribution

Someone lucking into many CEs is just the opposite tail of someone not getting any. Neither represents the typical player who will see something closer to the predicted average. This entire conversation is getting as stupid as the guy who was arguing about gacha RNG, but it’s now about drop CEs vs SSR pulls.

Don’t get sassy. Most of us have been through a few lottos by now, and we speak from experience not to mention what drop data has been gathered over the last few years. It’s not a complicated discussion.

Your responses give the impression that you disagree, but if you don’t, then there really isn’t much to discuss.

Edit: Just in case any part of this conversation hasn’t been clear, the takeaway is that results better than 1 box per gapple are not the norm. That’s it.

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472 :fgo_rainbowapple:
I wonder how many Gapples used :fgo_stare:

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0 apples. I always used all my apples for farming free nodes.

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Thank you. I’ve been wondering if there was any way to calculate this!

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It should be noted that this year, at least the (average) CE drop rates are notably better than last year.

Last BINY had CKT drop rates of 1.0, 1.2 and 1.5% during rotation 1, 2 and 3 respectively (Garden nodes), while this year it’s a flat 2.0% for Scenic Beauty across all rotations.
That means on average people should be able to mlb the lotto CE faster and get higher drop bonus sooner.

Individual mileage may vary of course, as always.

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If you throw enough apples at the lottery, you will eventually reach the “one box/one apple” ratio (and possibly better)
Assuming 140 AP per full bar, you get three and a half runs per apple on your “best 40 AP node”. So you’ll need an average of 171,4 tickets per run. Drops rates are tied to RNG. So a single run could get you between X and Y tickets drop, each being for a quantity of 3 or 4. Something like X=7 and Y=15 feels accurate enough for the general idea, but that’s purely from memory and I might be over/underestimating one or both numbers.

Now assuming the (very optimistic lmao) rate of 15 4-drops, that’s still only 60 tickets per run. To reach the needed 171,4 we still need 15*11,4 tickets per run, so let’s round it up to a +8 bonus, totalling to 2 MLB CEs and four non-MLB ones (for people able to run 6-slots, a 5-slot will need 3 MLBs instead).
Remember that you won’t get the 15 drops everytime either. So you actually need higher bonus than that if my X and Y are close enough to reality. Given that you start from much lower and have to drop enough CEs to reach that kind of bonus later on, you can start to roughly estimate how many runs it will take to reach a point where your average nears the desired 1box/1apple ratio.

To be honest, given the amount of stuff found in a box, even half that ratio (heck, even a fourth) is a pretty sweet general APD rate.

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