How much to reliably save for NP2+ SRs

Happy banana bullying everyone! There are often conversations about how much to save for a good shot at X SSR, however I’d like to hear your thoughts and advice on how many SQ to budget for a shot at multiple copies of a given 4 star SR.

For context, I’m attempting to budget for NP2-5 Lancer Raikou this summer since her banner and Summer Nero don’t appear to overlap. And likewise again next February for a shot at NP2-5 Asagami Fujino without blowing too much for MHXA on Valentine’s.

Thanks for the input!

Hi ! i’m exactly in the same situation .I plan to roll for both raikou and fujino and i would say save 300-400
if you really want more than a copy .That’ s of course if they’re on single rateup but sadly they are not .
So i guess something between 400 and 500sq should do it.
while rolling for melt :220 summons to get her i got 5 lip and no suzuka so as you can see even then there’s no guarentee that you will get the sr servant

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my bad i ve just checked it now .Both fujino and raikou do get solo rateups

I myself plan to get Raikou-sama in her lance-getup as well. I won’t bank on getting NP-levels for her, however.

You probably have made use of the slotu machin simulator here on site already. It’ll give you a very good idea just how random rolls can be, and, in my case, I observed just how random, indeed.

Similar to belluchi, I rolled on the 1st CCC-banner: my priority there was to get a hold of Lips, and possibly get NP-levels for her - first round didn’t call her out until after 180 crystals of 10-rolls, ~16 tickets and ~24 crystals of single summons AFAIR, I got Suzu and NP3-Melt within 150 crystals instead - 2 of the latter’s cards in the 150-roll; didn’t plan for her, didn’t want her even, but there it was. A further 3 10-rolls or so later on the same banner to get NP-levels for Lips “only” got NP2 Suzu and a Fragment of '30.

As you can see, getting a single copy of a certain Servant can already be finicky. To get more than one, the more crystals you can pile on, the better, really. Going by what I drew on best Douji’s (Shuten, that is) banner where I drew NP4 yellow dwarf after 270 crystals spent (and best Douji), what you planned to save should be enough to get those levels for Raikou-sama, if the RNG-gods will it.

Nice! If you dont mind my asking, is that 300-400 as much as you are budgeting for each, and do you plan on rolling for any 5*s around them?

I dont really have the funds to spend more than couple of big SQ packs this summer bc I would really like to get summer umu for those skills.

well i wouldn’t mind getting either shiki or maid alter but i will probably stop rolling if i get raikou and fujino.
i won’t roll for summer umu since i have her in her bride form(that’s more than enough for me) and i have da vinci who does nearly the same role .So all the free summons we will get during the anniversary will be spend on raikou sama(and if that’s not enough then well it’ s whale time xD)

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Just did the math. The chance of getting a rate-up SR is 1,5% in a single summon

0 only 1 2 or more Summons
63,55% 29,03% 7,42% 30
54,63% 33,28% 12,09% 40
46,97% 35,76% 17,27% 50
40,38% 36,90% 22,72% 60
34,72% 37,01% 28,28% 70
29,85% 36,36% 33,79% 80
25,66% 35,17% 39,17% 90
22,06% 33,60% 44,34% 100
18,97% 31,77% 49,26% 110
16,31% 29,80% 53,90% 120
14,02% 27,75% 58,23% 130
12,05% 25,70% 62,25% 140
10,36% 23,67% 65,97% 150
8,91% 21,71% 69,39% 160
7,66% 19,83% 72,51% 170
6,58% 18,05% 75,37% 180
5,66% 16,38% 77,96% 190
4,87% 14,82% 80,31% 200

The chance of getting an NP2 SR on rate-up reaches 70% on 170 summons and 80% on 200 summons

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300 is the 50% point, with each 300 quartz after increasing the odds by half the previous percentage - so 600 sq is a 75% chance and so forth.

It does obviously depend on luck, but budgeting around then is acceptable, imo.

Summer UMU will have another rate up during both upcoming new years so that could be an option.

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Depends on your luck.

Whilst @nilsoncsj has done a wonderful chart, (any chance you do that chat all the way upto 5 btw, planning to try and max my merlin later this year, and i’m sure there are people planning to go from no merlin to NP5 merlin), you can have terrible luck.

I burned a stupid amount of SQ getting my 2 copies of Melt. Between saved, paid, and tickets i burned roughly 2k SQ equivalent. On the other hand i managed the other day to get 3 SSR’s in 40 rolls. My lifetime average of paid SQ to SSR’s is around 175SQ per SSR, but Melt raised that average a good 50%, (and of course there were tickets and free SQ from mission/logins swingin things the other way).

Basically be prepared for disappointment, somtimes the gacha hates you.

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EDIT: I misunderstood what the user I was replying to said. His numbers are for EXACTLY zero, one, and two copies and my numbers are for AT LEAST 1-5 copies. Different things. Both our numbers are in agreement. Sorry Nilsoncsj!!!


I am sorry, it has been a LONG time since I took statistics but are you sure about that math? I been doing it in a spreadsheet and I get some different numbers.

For the probability of k successes the formula is:

tVAF6qejS0u2gaYRGWMEVQ

P(n,k)=Overall chance
n=number of rolls
k=number of successes
p=probability

Now for an at least one success you take the chance of zero successes and subtract that number from one. So,

X=1-P(n,k)

For 50 rolls and a chance of 1.5% for a solo rate up SR the probability of zero successes is

P(50,0)={50!/[(50-0)! x 0!]} x 0.015^0 x (1-0.015)^(50-0)=0.4697%

X=1-0.4697=0.5303

or 53.03% of getting at least one SR.

Which is different from your value of 46.97%

Now, if I am remembering it correctly for at least two successes you would add the chance of zero successes to the odds of only one success and subtract that from one.

Odds of ONLY one success:

P(50,1)={50!/[(50-1)! x 1!]} x 0.015^1 x (1-0.015)^(50-1)=50 x 0.015 x .4768=.3576

Odds of at least 2 successes:
X=1-(0.4697+.3576)=.1727 or 17.27%

Putting this all in a spreadsheet I get the following for a solo rate up SR:

NP%20chart

What I get for an SSR:

np%20chart%20ssr

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thanks for the statistic (as a statistic student myself i found it better to drop the maths and roll or else i will never put money in this game xD).I 've prepared 250 rolls for raikou .i’ll come back to this if i don’t get her xD

jokes apart :well done

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sorry i 've completely forgotten about it but here is a website where you can calculate the odds
https://shipfu.moe/fgo/

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Admirable. Although, to be frank, I am fine with the slotu machin.

Also has been a kind of motivator for me to roll in the first place: I get enough acceptable rolls - have yet to see another 1-2 10-roll for a 5* actually happen again as happened with Melt* - I just go ahead and roll on the real thing. :sweat_smile:

*PS: Have to specify here insofar that I didn’t get another 5-star on rate-up banner again since then in just the first two rolls. Best Doujin first called forth a very, very random LMLOL - El-Mellol - in very first draw. :fgo_illya:

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If you want to do these calculations yourself, without typing out horrible equations, then you can do it with a cumulative binomial probability calculator, such as this one:
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

In the picture below:
1 is the probability of getting the servant (the percentage on the summon information page/100, for a single rate up SR, that’s 0.015).
2 is the number of rolls you’re going to make.
3 is the minimum number of copies you want to get.
4 is the probability.

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That’s great! I was totally unaware of this website. Thanks @belluchi !!

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Nice link, and i just did the math on my melt luck. By the time the second copy dropped i was at around a 1 in 4,000 odds of not having got a second copy allready. In fact statistically i should have had her at NP5 4 out of 5 times after just 1350 SQ equivalent…

Yeah the gacha really hated me.

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That’s why I will never spend except for GSSRs. :slight_smile:

Haha that’s understandable

Yeah that happens .with 700 quartz i got one melt .
With 300 quartz i got 3 ishtar .
The gacha is full of surprises.
No i aim for an np2 raikou and i have like 860 quartz,we will see how it will work out

Man, I’ve been doing these calculations myself every time someone asked a question in this vein, I didn’t think of looking for an online binomial distribution calculator. Thanks, this is gonna save me a ton of time in the futute!

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