Learning when to bait shields

Do you have any particular method in determining when you should go for a bait? What do you do when the oppenent doesn’t take it? In my experience, rank 8 players tend to be purely 50/50 when going for a bait. Sometimes this works in my favor when try to predict if they won’t take it or not. Am I thinking too much?

Not really…

You can count moves and sometimes can tell they are firing a weaker attack but a genuine bait would have waited for the right amount of turns (Beware of lag/cheating).

I for once refuse to memorise a table with the moves for every charge move for every pokemon but the ones I use stick in my head with no effort!

I do count moves but like you said, it can be inconsistent, (lag, miscounting, etc). However every time when I’m trying to decide if an incoming move is bait or not is when I’ve already counted that they have enough for the attack I’d want to block.

A less accurate, but easier way to cover things is using “Appoximation” based on your charge move powerup vs thier charge move power up.

For example Azumaril vs Registeel
First Hydropump is about 1/2 way on Regist 2nd Flash Cannon. If they use a charge move when Im just barely done FC then either they had energy from prev battle, lag, or its not a hydropump.

Second HP is right as your 3rd FC goes off usually wins tie if you both started

I usually try to drastically overcharge if I intend to try and bait but it depends on the prevailing situation as regards health. Base it on your opponent - if they relentlessly spam charged moves, they’re probably not expecting you to do the same and use that to your advantage. If not and they’re more measured try mixing bait up - most people go bait, kill, bait so you can swap that around or psyche them into thinking you’ll be baiting when you aren’t. It’s very much a guessing game though.

I think people are more likely to bait when their 'mon has health to spare.

It’s not easy in blind battles, but it’s actually quite predictable when someone will shield anything that will be thrown at them.

Forget about obvious lead scenario’s like Registeel vs Registeel or Altaria vs Whiscash. That’s basic luck baiting.

I saw a video here of an A-Marowak vs Froslass matchup. This is highly unfavourable for Froslass, as it takes SE damage from the Fire Spin, while it’s dealing ineffective damage using Powder Snow.

Either the person running Froslass had no clue what to do, or they wanted the A-Marowak gone SO badly. So you can predict that if they stay in, they likely will shield. They already were down to 55% hp before they even got near a Shadow Ball. So if the Bone Club hit, they couldn’t even get to a 2nd charge move. In this case it’s obvious they’ll shield, or they will be at a great disadvantage since that A-Marowak will be at quite high health while they’re down to 2 pokemon.

Another example; Forest Cup

If you’re playing Galvantula vs Meganium, and you know they have Mantine remaining in the back, you can bet your ass they’ll take all Discharge baits