Lucky Friend chance

What is the chance/probability that a first interaction of the day with a Best Friend will make us Lucky Friends?

Players have reported 2%

I did a four month study with one other person on the internet, tracking our total number of friend bumps and total number of lucky friends. His numbers and mine were consistent, and we came up with a rate of 1.6%, or more accurately 1.60% +/- 0.6. So a bit less than the 2% reported, but within reason.