Meltan and probabilities

So I have about 4000 meltan candy between both my accounts.

This roughly means I catched 1000 of them (some with pinab). I have also 5 luckies from trades.

Yet the highest IV is a 96% (two of them) and no shinies

Am I just unlucky or are these normal odds?

Unboosted chance for a Hundo is 1:4096, boosted is 1:1728, random trade Hundo is 1:1331, Lucky Hundo is 1:64. So yeah, nothing out of the ordinary. And Shiny Meltan is only available during special events.

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Having caught 500-1000 Pokémon isn’t all that much, take a look at your other Pokémon and see how many you have caught and have not seen a hundo… it is all down to how lucky you are.

You have about a 1 in 4000 chance (see whate @PokeprofJulian wrote) to see a hundo but that means that for:
your 1st caught your chance is 1/4000, your 2nd caught has 1/4000 chance,… your 100th has 1/4000 chance, your 4 000th caught still has that same chance.

If you have average luck you will see a hundo in those 4 000 catches, if you are really lucky you will see more then 1 in 4 000 catches, if you are unlucky you will see none not even after 10 000 catches.

I have caught more Meltans then you need to complete the Steel Platininum Medal but still have no Hundo, I have 1 98% and a handfull of 96% but still this is what you can expect.

Its depressing,

4000 catches means 4000 minutes using meltan boxes… this is roughly 70 hours of my life, 8.5 full working days spent catching and transferring meltans!!!

Will settle for a few more lucky trades (I’d say 10) and then whatever is the highest will have to do.

You could also use your daily Special Trade to swap Meltan for a chance at a Lucky (if you haven‘t done so already). Waiting for Lucky Friends can be quite time consuming.