Rolling for a Rate-Up Four Star

I am going to roll for Astolfo’s rate up during the Valentine’s Day event and am wondering whether a multi-draw or single-draw strategy works better for rolling for a rate-up four star. Also, since there’s technically a 3% chance of rolling a four-star in a single pull and the rate up for the four star Astolfo should be around 0.75% (a fourth of the 3%), does that mean that in a multi-draw the chance of getting Astolfo as the guaranteed four-star is 25%? All answers are appreciated. I am saving up saint quartz for this and have 290 so far (started playing like a week or so ago and am aiming for 600 at least by February 10).

To clarify a misconception: when the game says you get a guaranteed SR in a ten-roll, the game just defaults to a CE.

How it works: the game calculates what all ten things you get will be the instant you press “roll.” Then it just plays the animations one by one. If it happens to pick nothing but 3 star and lower things, it just takes the 10th object, whatever it is, and turns it into a random SR Craft Essence. Tldr: you can’t get a servant from the guaranteed SR bump.

Back to your question: single or multi? If all you are looking for is one copy, single rolls will be slightly more efficient. Here’s two scenarios:

  • scenario A: you roll 6 singles, then get the goal on roll 7. Total cost = 21 SQ
  • scenario B: you roll 1 multi, get the target on roll 7. Total cost = 30 SQ.

In this case, scenario A has technically saved you 9 sq, making it more efficient. The rates don’t change from single to multi roll. 0.75% chance is the same between single and multi options. This will technically change next anniversary, when the 10-roll becomes an 11-roll, but that’s not important to your question.

No it won’t. Every 10th roll becomes a double roll and only costs 3 quartz

So you can nibble at a banner by tossing singles without forfeiting your “bonus” roll

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Ok, but then for the guaranteed four-star servant or CE would the rate up four star have a higher chance of being rolled as the guaranteed four star?

So after seeing this thread I looked into the valentines banner as it ran on jp 2 years ago, and Astolfo, Enkidu and d’Eon are not actually on rateup unless compared to summon pools that also include male servants. There’s no four star rateups at all for the banner, actually. All four stars share the same rate, though I’m not sure exactly what that would be.

His next solo rateup is the rerun of the Nightingale Christmas event, though he’s part of a large pool of relevant rateups during the Apocrypha rerun earlier in 2022.

Note: I’ve heard this before, but the game’s disclosures contradict the notion that only SR CEs can be rolled in this manner.

I think someone actually linked a screenshot the other day with all 3* results except for a 5* Servant.

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ah good to know. if DW stated elsewhere, great.

regarding the SSR in slot ten though, how could you prove it was an SSR after the bump, or just a natural SSR in the tenth slot?

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ah goody! i didn’t know cuz i don’t play JP. XD

So the summon pool only includes female/unknown gender servants? If so, when is the next rate-up for Astolfo or the next 4-star ticket?

As you’re new to the community, welcome!

First off, info like “when will X servant next be on rate up?” can be answered by just looking at the bottom of their GP page. Just google ‘FGO Astolfo’ and find the GP page (not the wiki) and it’ll have all the banners at the bottom.

The banners are in JP time, so add 2 years give or take.

For astolfo specifically, the next solo rateup will be December 2022 for NA. Otherwise, your only real close-ish bets are on the class-based banners this May and September. Still not ideal, but that’s what it is.

Fair point. Are we getting a free SR ticket this year? I didn’t see one among the autumn events, or at least it wasn’t obvious, need to get my clairvoyance checked out.

As far as I’m aware, no more SR tickets, save the SSR ticket in two years.

Not even next year.

edit: errrr, this year. No more SR tickets this year, SSR ticket is next year i suppose. Sorry, brain still stuck in luluhawa 2020.

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As both my post and Venatorio’s said, he shows up next on solo rateup in December 2022. Otherwise the best you have is probably the Apocrypha rerun banner, though he shares the 4 star rateup pool there with several other Apocrypha related 4 stars. Following that are class-based banners, but the 4 star rider pool is somewhat wide, so the odds there aren’t that great, albeit better than the Valentines pool.

There are no known future 4 star tickets at the moment, since common opinion is that the ticket that JP got in 2019 being part of the Babylonia anime campaigns aligns with the extra unexpected one NA got in early 2020. It’s not impossible for them to find an excuse to give us a ticket in the same end-of-year timeframe anyway, but there’s also no basis to assume it will happen.

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That’s kinda sad about no more free 4 stars in the next 2 years. What will I do about the ones that got away now? :smiley:

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I love that no one mentions the fact that Astolfo is a Boy

dead horse is still dead. Fancy that.

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Sorry I didn’t mean to be insulting…

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That’s happened to me

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it’s definitely possible but the likelihood is so low as to be basically meaningless

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I don’t believe you can, but the odds suggest otherwise.

If we refer to the fine print in the app regarding 10x Summons, it explicitly states that the guaranteed minimum 4* or greater result may be a CE or a Servant.

10x rolls currently are better odds when compared to a series of 10 singles. However, the chance of rolling 10x without getting at least a 4* CE is fairly low, in which case the guarantee does not kick in.

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