Rolling for a Rate-Up Four Star

This is such an old argument. I know some say that statistically it’s been shown that the bonus is always a CE but I don’t know and it’s not worth getting into a heated discussion about since no one will admit they are wrong. Not that I’m implying that’s happened, yet.

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I think the bigger point is that the in-game information states such.

If that information were wrong, they could have legal trouble over gambling regulations, so chances are good that they tested the mechanic and chose their wording carefully.

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I think it’s more a matter of interpretation of the wording. Specifically, it says,

Each 10x Summon is guaranteed to include one *4 (SR) or above card and one *3 (R ) or above Servant!

  • The guaranteed *4 (SR) or above card can be either a Servant or a Craft Essence.
  • The distribution rate for the guaranteed *3 (R ) or above Servant will different from that listed on the “Summon Info” screen.

Now, to my interpretation, this means that if you already have a 4 star servant or better, you meet the criteria of the 10-roll guarantee. If you don’t, then the server performs another roll for a 4 star craft essence (hypothesized and tested by others), thereby meeting the criteria of the wording. Logically, you would think that the “replacement roll” would also roll for servants as well, but statistical collection of 10-rolls doesn’t bear out an increase in 4 star servants to my knowledge. Personally I don’t think having only a replacement CE contradicts the wording, but this is up to personal interpretation.

If you look at the second line, it says that distribution rates for 3-star servants specifically are affected by the guarantee. By exclusion, that implies that distribution rates for 4-star servants and higher are not – and therefore remain static at the stated 1% for 5-stars and 3% for 4-stars. Again, that is just my interpretation.

This is why I personally believe, based on what data we have, that singles are the way to go. But only DW knows for absolutely certain.


Ironically, nearly every time I’ve pulled a rate-up 5-star, I’ve missed on the rate-up 4-stars (even with 600+ SQ spent on the banner), or when I’ve pulled the 4-stars, I’ve missed on the 5-star. I don’t know what to think of this. But I guess that’s how the cookie crumbles. :fgo_gilgalaugh:

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Ok, everyone! Thank you for you valuable imput! I decided I am just going to save up my Saint Quartz for the Apocrypha event next year!! I will just work with the servants I started out with (Heracles, Mashu, Elizabeth and D’Eon) to grind for enough SQ to get Astolfo and Saberstolfo during the event (or maybe a ticket comes out before, I dunno)!

I still think the “switch the last card for a 4-star” idea is pretty ridiculous, personally. It would be much easier for the server to generate a set of random numbers that has to include at least one that corresponds to a 4-star or higher card, and then send that set to the client. There is no need to change or swap anything, nor does it need to have any effect on the relative odds of acquiring any given card type.


I would not necessarily recommend it, but the class banner in May will have him at a 25% rate which is half the standard, I believe, but still… waiting until around the same time a year after the fact sounds a bit annoying if he is your favorite servant. If you only wanted 1 copy, I doubt you would be forced to go too deep. And there are two story locked servants you can fish for at the same time. No idea how important that is for you.

Again, I would not particularly recommend it, but the rider banner is one of the stronger class based banners just because there are 2 story locked silvers, and 2 story locked ssrs. You could do worse. In fact, I think your chances are ironically worse during the Apocrypha event. Lul.

Dare I say it would be a lot easier (cheaper) to just wait for Christmas and go for his saber version. Either way, good luck with whatever you do decide to do.

Is the following such a case, or does the “guaranteed SR card can only be CE” how Venatorio described it only count, if it’s actually the 10th card in the roll that’s golden?


don’t know if this helps

It’s really best not to consider the gold card guarantee at all when making your rolling plans if SQ efficiency is your primary goal. I normally count it as a reason to do multis, but that’s because SQ aren’t in short supply if you’re willing to open up your wallet and my primary goal is time efficiency, and the guarantee is just a small side bonus. And especially when it comes to aiming for your target, it barely bumps the probability at all, even for a 4*.

Given that you started recently though, I’d recommend you pull on at least a banner between now and the Apocrypha rerun. You have a pretty good start - remarkably similar to mine, actually, except I didn’t have Liz until much much later - and those units will carry you pretty comfortably to at least mid-part 1 without too much trouble, provided you raise them right. Past that though, you’re definitely going to start feeling the lack of diversity in your roster, and even doing the free Friend Point summons each day you might find yourself struggling to get a collection of 3* with good NP levels - even budget darlings like Robin, Euryale and Caesar might be out of your reach if you’re not doing any quartz summons at all. Obviously, save for your favourites, but getting any gold Servant, even some general pool 4*, can be a big boost to your account with a little bit of luck, and you’ll get the premiere 3*s to NP5 much much faster than relying on FP. Of course you’ll still have the bronze superstars like Hans, Arash and Spartacus (and, given you’re starting out with Herc, Georgios and Leonidas will also both be hugely beneficial right out the gate).

Given that you’ve got Herc, my immediate recommendation would be to pull at least a little on the Merlin banner in August, if not another banner before then. There’s also the Space Ishtar banner in November for one of the game’s most capable farmers, the Waver and Reines banners in April for charge supports (although Reines isn’t a full 50% charge until over a year later), and a bunch of others depending on what your personal tastes are.

Again, this isn’t to say you should pull on any of these banners till you have no quartz left - but burning up a few quartz between now and Apoc will probably do you good, and not really dent your chances of landing Astolfo when the time comes.


Couldn’t I wait until the Apocrypha event and roll for him when his Saber version also has a rate up (since I’m fine with either Astolfo)? Wouldn’t that give me a higher chance to roll an Astolfo than during the Christmas event since it’s a daily rate-up for just Saber Astolfo and a constant rate-up for Rider Astolfo?

I don’t think we can say for sure, but the odds are weighted towards it being the guarantee kicking in.

Given that the other 9 cards are Rs, it seems more likely that the guarantee influenced the remaining result than it does that the SSR popped up at its usual 1% probability.

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The game populated the roll. Saw there was a 5 star and so no rateup was performed.

It’s likely, but we cannot prove it.

Is there a good chance of getting 5* CE on a rateup in Valentine’s (while rolling for Astolfo and a rateup 5* Servant?)

Only for whichever CEs are published as rate-up, like most event CEs on related banners.

I might not be understanding the question, but nothing that we’ve discussed so far would influence the 5* CEs except that, according to the in-game disclosure, you may receive a 4* or higher Servant or CE if the guarantee kicks in. However, the guarantee doesn’t even happen that often since there is a low chance to roll all 10 results as 3*.

Got 2.2k, should be fine for this month (and I can boost Ilya power too).

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Don’t rely on the guaranteed SR for anything, evidence suggests it has no statistically significant effect on drop rates. Unless you are so new that any 4-star is valuable to you, it’s safest to just ignore it.