Shiny Mewto % chance

Someone know M2 shiny rate? For sure is lesser( did about 20 raids with 8-20 accounts each, and was just 3 shiny overall), than previous Legendaries, but how much?

It seems to be 1/20, consistent with other legendaries outside of specific raid days. https://thesilphroad.com/science/quick-discovery/ultra-bonus-week-3-shiny-rates/

Your results can be considered below average, but RNG gonna RNG.

Last 2 Mewtwo raids we played yesterday were both with 8 players, first raid no shinies second raid 2 shinies… so you could conclude that in those the odds were in favor… but hey day before we played raids with much bigger groups 19/20 people and we saw only 1 shiny.

In the long run for most people it will be 1/20 but for some it could be 1/100 and for others 2/3.

Keep on playing and if you are lucky you will see a shiny before Mewtwo goes!

2/20 for me

In my experience, the 1/20 normal legendary rate seems to hold, give or take a few for RNG for the groups ive been a part of (generally 40 or so around hatch, 2-4 get shinies on average).

personally at 3/11 RN, but i’ve had some friends that have done 30+ and still zero

1 in 5 for me, but then I had 0 in 66 shiny Rayquazza…

0/40+ My friend and I hit lucky friends the other day and we’ve been doing so many Mewtwo so we can trade same trade a shiny. Neither of us haven’t gotten one and it leaves in 4 days!! Hell, I’ve even gotten 1 hundo and a 15/15/14 which is basically a hundo.

I’m heading to Montreal for Safari Zone which basically cuts Mewtwo raiding time. I never thought the raid hour yesterday would be cancelled. I was banking on getting a shiny then

Really guys? I was meant 3 shiny for total 20 raid for all people, not just for me. I know RNG can be brutal, but its still looks really weird.

Hope, will grab one soon.

Shiny rates are just weird. Did several Mewtwo raids yesterday in a group of 15 accounts. Most raids either no-one got a shiny or one person did. About right for a 1/20 chance.
Then in one raid, 5 out of the 15 got a shiny. That’s pretty impressive odds.

0/52 still trying…

It’s 1/16 for me.

The rate is 1/6 … proof: the sixth one I personally caught was shiny :smiley:

Sorry for that :-P

3/15 here

no hundo, but a 98 ran on me

Buy the Mewtwo shoes from the style shop to increase your shiny odds. It is scientifically proven and not at all a coincidence /s.

3 Likes

I wil try, because another 8 raids with my community mates( 12 accounts) resulted 0 shiny for anyone. No one of us believe on 1/20 chance.

After like almost 30 raid with at least 8 accounts and often full loby( average number of accounts was usually 12) results 5 shinies total. Do the math.
Several random people also noticed incredibely low shiny rate. In my whole community only 3 persons( out of 22) have shiny.

RNG is gonna RNG.

For Rayquaza, of the people I raid with (20 accounts overall) only 1 got a Shiny in the first week, and we did 10+ raids each. (First day, first raid, one guy got a Shiny; we started to think that it was glitched.) Even the first Raid Hour, no one got Shiny’s. Then the second week, we started getting a few Shiny’s. Myself, I ended up with 4 Shiny Rayquaza’s - each of them coming back-to-back as the first two Rayquaza I did during the next two Raid Hours. So I did about 20 raids and got 4 Shinies. Meanwhile, I have caught 0 Shiny Articuno, Moltres, Groudon, Kyogre, Mewtwo, Entei, Raikou, Suicune, Latios or Lapras.

It’s just RNG, man. RNG is gonna RNG, and nothing anyone can do about it.

Don’t want to brag but, I’m 100%!!!
0 raids 0 shinys!
Although my beer can has a lovely green glint in the right light!
Keep hunting peeps, what will be, will be!

Nothing is weird.

To encounter 1 shiny in 20 raids, the chance of shiny is only 64.25% for an individual player. This means about 36 in 100 players would not encounter a shiny after 20 raids. Players on your community is just on the unlucky end.

RNG is gonna RNG, so you do more raids to ensure your shiny.

Formula: 1 - [(19/20)^x]
*x being number of encounters.

For a 1 in 20 shiny rate - as an individual player:
1st raid being shiny = 5%
2 raids = 9.75% chance encountering at least 1 shiny
3 raids = 14.26% chance encountering at least 1 shiny
8 raids = 33.66 chance encountering at least 1 shiny.
20 raids = 65.25% chance encountering at least 1 shiny.

30 raids = 78.54% chance encountering at least 1 shiny
45 raids = 90.06% chance encountering at least 1 shiny
60 raids = 95.39% chance encountering at least 1 shiny
80 raids = 98.35% chance encountering at least 1 shiny

By 100th raid = 99%+ players would have encountered at least 1 shiny. This still means somewhere out there in the world, there still might be an unlucky guy without a shiny after 100 raids.

Each encounter is treated as an individual event.
It’s like, if you randomly pick one chocolate from a box of 1 white chocolate and 19 dark chocolate.

  • In reality, after you draw 4 dark chocolates in the box, you have 1 white and 15 dark left. So your next draw has a higher chance to get the white chocolate
  • In RNG, after you draw 4 dark chocolates, your next draw is still from a box of 1 white chocolate and 19 dark chocolates. Your 20th draw has just the same chance to get the white chocolate as your 1st.

Just done two raids with a bunch of spotty arrogant f**ks who instead of offering advice, said use what ya like we don’t care. Gonna stick with solo in my town from now on.
To top it off I didn’t even manage to catch the bastard! :face_with_symbols_over_mouth:

As much as I am for people spreading the knowledge, it’s not their job to teach you what to do. This site can help you out a lot more than they probably could. What made them arrogant though?