This is How Many Crystals to Save for Gogeta Blue (when he comes)

Okay so with all the speculations and hype for Gogeta Blue dropping probably around Christmas, I decided to do some math for how many crystals u need to have a reasonable chance to pull him.

TLDR: It’s 20,500 crystals. That gives you a 51.6% chance to get him after 5 rotations on the step-up and a 67.94% chance to get him on the guaranteed sparking assist banner.

Of course you can get really lucky with less but this is for best odds.

Here’s the math:

The equation for calculating the odds:

1-(1-p)^n

where p is the percentage (in decimal form) of getting LF Gogeta (usually LF units are 25% chance) and n is the number of pulls you do. For a step-up, that equates to 58 singles which you multiply by the number of rotations you do on the banner (5 in this case which gives 290 pulls).

So once u put it in a calculator, the chance of pulling him is 51.6% on the normal step-up after 5 rotations. And on the guaranteed assist banner, which you can pull on 7 times, 67.94%.

20,500 crystals is the best even number to get divide the assist tickets just right so you aren’t tempted to go back into the banner. Let me know what you think.

I got the equation from this site: https://www.reddit.com/r/DragaliaLost/comments/esxdky/calculating_gacha_rates_or_why_11pn_is_your_best/

Not to be rude, but this is not true always. A youtuber, Rhymestyle, spent 90k cc to pull one copy of LF Super Vegito on the second anniversary. Another example is me, I saved 16k cc for the Ssj2 Movie Gohan and Bojack Banner and managed to pull only one Bojack. Enraged, I spent another 4k cc but nothing.
Another reminder is that you get back to step 4 and the first rotation. Anyway, applause for the effort man. I say save 20k cc. Don’t skip banners like Black Friday. My opinion is to never skip a step up. Do atleast 1 rotation. I did one rotation of Saiyaman and Rose banner and pulled one Rose along with many other great units. So, my tip, don’t skip Black Friday just because you are saving for Gogeta Blue. I have 8k cc right now and I will keep saving these for Black Friday. After black friday, I will start saving for Christmas. Remember, SKIP the all star and rising banners. If you are really tempted, do daily discount but nothing more.

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Well so generally you have the (LF?) upon release at 5.000%, and you have a 7.000% chance at sparkings, so 7 x 5 = 35, so generally its just 35,000 cc to save accurately. (or at least I think)