Today I experienced something that must be exceptionally rare, unless there is a “lucky bug” in the system. A duo of a Rayquaza raid resulted in two shiny Hundo Rayquazas! I have played from the start and this is actually my first shiny Hundo, I just cannot believe this to be just RNG. Have someone else experienced something similar?
Thank you, I just couldn’t believe it and still cannot ;) I am just wandering if Niantic has boosted the probability for Hundo encounters. During the latest weeks, I have also caught a regular Hundo Ray, and traded for a lucky Hundo Ray. I also lost a Hundo Armored Mewtwo (I was not aware it was a Hundo before it ran away…). I have not played more than usual (1 sometimes 2 raids/day), and it took a looong time before I got my first Hundo Legendary.
I’m gonna say that it boils down to plain ol’ good luck. Simultaneous shundos is pretty insane luck, but it’s still within the realm of possibility. Might want to go buy a lottery ticket while you’re at it!
Could be interesting to know the probability for this to happen. Although theoretically possible, I suspect probability is so minuscule that it can at least be speculated there could somehow be an interdependence of the two shiny hundo Rays appearing simultaneously. But it is a good suggestion to participate in the big lottery
From any given duo raid, the chance of both catches being shiny and perfect is about 1 in 18 million, yes.
But we aren’t talking about any given duo raid. We’re talking about one specific duo raid, where you have already gotten a perfect shiny for one of the catches. Given that the first account got a perfect shiny, the chance that the second one would also be perfect shiny is still 1/4320.
If we looked at all of the duo raids, where at least one of the catches was a perfect shiny, it’s not that unlikely that we’d find a double perfect shiny among them. As I see it, the most unlikely part is simply that the rare individual who chanced into this encounter, happens to belong to this forum.
That’s sort of what I was trying to say. Each encounter has an individual chance of 1 in 4320 of being a shundo. To encounter a shundo twice is the 1 in 18 million. One duo raid has two encounters (one per account obviously) that as far as has been observed by any research team are generated independently of each other, contrary to what one thread several months ago attempted to imply. Ergo, for both encounters from one raid to simultaneously be shiny the odds are 1 in 18 million.
I’ve seen posts about getting raid shundos. I’ve never once seen one raid yield two shundos. That is the exceptionally unlikely part IMO. There’s also something humorous about using the phrase “not that unlikely” to describe a 1 in 4320 event
With such odds, it is hard to believe that this happened by pure luck. The two accounts I used are not gold for Legendary wins, with 712 and 561 wins each. None of them have got a shiny hundo previously, and then both at the same time? This is very hard to believe. I must say I still suspect some sort of influence from one account to the other, some sort of “Lucky bug”.
Regardless, I am of course very pleased with the result
They have different sizes so they are not “duplicates”:
For two events of 1/4320 to happen at once, that’s 1 in 18 million. You don’t split these two events separably, else you’re not talking about “one specific duo raid.”
ie. Say the chance to win something is 1/100. To win it 2 times with only 2 attempts it’s 1/10,000. If you’ve won it once, and you get multiple attempts after the the first win, then you can say the next winning chance is 1/100. But winning it twice in row is still 1 out of 10,000.
It really depends on how you phrase the question. If you ask, “What’s the chance that one specific duo raid in the future will result in two perfect Rayquaza?” then that’s like 1 in 18 million. If you ask, “What’s the chance that the second Rayq would also be perfect, after the first one was?” then that’s closer to 1 in 4000.
The thing is, perfect Rayqs happen all the time. It wouldn’t even be notable enough for someone to post on here, if they got one. We’d just congratulate them, and move on. It’s no big deal.
The only reason why this event is remotely notable is because of the timing. We’re looking at the one specific Rayq that was also caught in the same duo raid with a given perfect Rayq. And the chance of that one being perfect is just 1 in 4000.
Exactly! If we were only dealing with two attempts here, then the chance of it happening for both of them would be pretty rare.
But we (us, people on the internet, looking to be impressed) are not only looking at a single duo attempt. We are looking at the total dataset, of all Rayq duos in the world. The vast majority of those duos are background noise - less than 100%, not shiny, or a combination of the two. Some of those duos contain a perfect Rayq, which is the only reason why we notice them at all. So we look at that duo, which is only interesting on the basis that we already know it has one perfect outcome, and we consider the rest of the data which is not already a given; and the chance for that one specific Rayq to be perfect is like 1 in 4000.
I feel like this is arguing more semantics about the wording of each statement and less the actual probability.
Someone tosses a coin. That coin has 1:2 odds of being heads.
That person tosses a second coin. That second coin shares the same 1:2 odds independent of the first coin because the outcome of the first coin has no bearing on the outcome of the second coin.
The trick is if that person were to toss both coins and ask “What are the odds that both coins will be heads?” You’re looking for the probability of one outcome based on two independent results. Each individual occurrence has 2 outcomes, yielding 4 potential outcomes when combined (HH, HT, TH, TT). In other words, the odds of both coins being heads are 1:4.
Apply this to this scenario. Two accounts raid a Rayquaza. What are the odds of account A encountering a shundo? 1:4320, as determined previously by combining 1:20 shiny odds and 1:216 hundo odds. What are the odds account B will encounter a shundo? Also 1:4320. This event is completely independent of account A’s encounter, which is why “What are the odds account B encounters one after account A does?” is somewhat irrelevant. Account A’s result doesn’t affect account B’s result in any way, and you might as well just ask “What are the odds account B encounters a shundo?”
Now, to ask “What are the odds both accounts will encounter a shundo from the same raid?” means we combine the odds of account A and account B to form one probability. This is how the conclusion of 1 on 18 million came up, because we’re looking for the probability of both 1:4320 instances occuring at the same time and combining unrelated instances like this is multiplicative, not additive.
I understand where you get that from. I just didn’t understand why you would count first encounter as given event. It’s like saying if I was given the first 5 numbers of lottery, then my chances to get the last number is 1/40. My chances to win all 6 numbers should still be 1 in billions, not 1/40. So I wasn’t sure why this was brought up. That’s all.
Anyways, I won’t respond anymore. Thanks for your time. Sorry if I sounded rude at all.
It is just random luck. With millions of players doing raids every day -some more than once daily- for whatever amount of time it has been possible to acquire shiny legendaries in gyms, your incredible happenstance was going to happen eventually to someone at some time. You just happened to be the fortunate one and you might not even be the first but certainly won’t be the last. Congratulations and I hate you