Upcoming NA Lucky Bag 2020

So I’m in a little bit of a predicament. Before I got Merlin, i just auto gone for anything that have him on it. BUT just an hour ago, he just whoosh down on my face with an extra loli killer on top :grin:

Now Im kinda of lost for which banner to choose. My servant roster is 6/27 on Knight Banner and 10/30 on Calvary. My wishlist is probably either a CQ specialist ( Amakusa/Holmes ) or the missing SSR Rider. Dont know which one is more better for the upcoming content. ( or any servant will become the top dog in the following year)

My Clairvoyance Rank is shit tier so hope for any high IQ Master 's advice in here.

Lucky Bag Banner

This is my servant roster atm

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Well…do you want to Avoid Disappointment, Chase Your Favorite, or simply Get Something New?

If avoiding disappointment is the name of the game, go through each roster and pick the one with the highest number of “I’d be happy with” picks.

If you want to chase your favorite, you know what to do.

If you just want someone new, just pick the banner with the most servants you don’t have.

Targeting a specific SSR in the lucky bag is a bad idea.

If you really want Amakusa or Holmes, then roll for that banner. I will probably also pick the that banner.

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There are several approaches to the GSSR. Some people like to maximize the odds of getting one of their “best cases”, some like to minimize the “worst cases”. Either way, don’t go in the GSSR expecting to get something specific that you want - the odds are very low. Instead, I find it better to go with what has the lowest odds of absolute disappointment and just be happy with what you get. But that’s just my opinion.

I made myself a spreadsheet to judge which pool would be better to pull on. I can share if people are interested. I chose scores arbitrarily from -2 to +2.

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half the cavalry one is please no for me xD

This is exactly what i am looking for. Is your spreadsheet base on gameplay or personal fave ?

More skewed towards personal faves as I’m mostly set for gameplay at this point, but gameplay plays some part. For example, Lancer Artoria would be a 1 on pure favoritism but is raised to 2 for her sheer insane gameplay value for any sort of 3T farming.

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Anything but NP2 for sp servant or NP3 Nightingale is fine for me, i guess. Just want to get the most out of the box.

I like the fact that highest chance of Jackpot and Pls No are in the same banner :catslam:

In that case I’d rather go with 0 chance of Pls No over slightly higher chance of Jackpot. Knight banner also has higher score on average, so I’m very likely to go with that in January. May change based on what happens to arrive before then, but aside from maybe Eresh a bit I’m likely not rolling on anything until then. I need both Hokusai and Fujino.

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Pool 1 has a 30% chance of a jackpot and 3% chance of dupe for me, I wonder how my F rank lank will treat me? :fgo_jeannu:

Got dupe thx

Do you mind sharing this somehow? I am definitely interested, and my post-rolls editing just left me more at a loss, lol.

Sure, here you go. I’m using one excel file to keep track of all the GSSRs.


Just make your own copy and edit as you please.

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Last lucky banner I dreampt I got Jalter, so I rolled…
And got NP2 Sanzang. :fgo_badciv:
But she helped me with the King Hassan CQ, so it’s whatever.
But just because you dream you will succeed doesnt mean you will.

There are a few banners that are amazing.
The Holmes banner is amazing.
No matter who you get they all have a lot of value, albeit in specific cases.
You have Jeanne though, so you have to ask yourself if you’d be happy getting another copy of her.

The Kiara banner is also fantastic if you don’t have Kiara or Melt or Abby. (which you don’t)
I have Kiara and Melt, at high NP levels, so I probably will choose the avenger/ ruler banner.
I need me either Jeanne or Holmes or Jalter.
Amakusa is like meh, but new so okay.
Already got Edmond at NP2, but NP3 is also ok.

The Caster banner is also fantastic IMHO.
But you have all the main supports, Merlin, Tamamo, and Zhuuuuge.

I’d say go for the 5* Riders since you have none, gamble with the Archers for someone other than Arjuna if you like but be prepared in case you get Arjuna again, gamble on the Avenger Ruler one, or play it safe with the Alter Egos.
However, Kiara is intended for CQ, so idk if that would make you happy or not.
A lot of people don’t use Melt much either. (me included), and the alter egos have insane gem requirements for leveling their skills.
Nerofest makes it manageable though.
But that’s once a year.
(other lottos might make it manageable too)

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Thanks!

I think that there are only 2 banners and I probably will roll the Knight Banner , even though how much i want Cu Alt or Altria Rider. Well, GSSR isnt a place for that kind of stuff so just gonna try to get the more bang out of my buck :fgo_umu::fgo_umu:

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Oh oops!!
I think you’re right!! XD
Dang it, I was wondering why they gave us such good odds…
(it’s cause I was wrong xD)

@angelsgal It’s worth noting IMO that, aside from CQs being like 1% of the game, Hokusai has a pretty cost prohibitive CQ comp if you actually want to use her for CQ min-turning - literally the video that popularized her had Waver, Bride, CasGil, NP2, and MLB BG (although Superscope is also a necessity afaict in certain other, later CQs). To say nothing of the Abby’s, or Tamamo’s, or even Poster Girl(s) that come into play if you want absolute reliability in cycling out your buffers so that more another can come in and buff then repeat the cycle. Or later, Skadi, as the 50% charge is pretty important for getting Hokusai to NP again (and subsequently NPAA to stack yet more DEF downs).

Personally, as someone that puts money into the game on a regular if sporadic basis, and has had good and awful luck (frigging scopes/BGs not showing), I’m like 75% of the way to being able to run a Hokusai comp if I rolled for and assumed I got her. Ain’t going to assume circumstances, but she’s far from a “Get her, sweep easy-peasy” (even ignoring the fact that all of those cool CQ min-turn videos involve hours upon hours of resets for proper card RNG and whatnot).

Meanwhile, it’s not exactly like she can farm regularly either despite the 30% charge, as an appreciable amount of her refund is built into her Arts crit combined with goofy DEF down stacking. She can, granted - but IIRC you’re looking at at least Bride’s bond CE, to say nothing of some others.

Do I think she’s bad? Nah, she’s pretty lit. I actually adore her character, even. But unless you have certain other stuff in play an NP1 Hokusai isn’t going to simply bring you an easy CQ life, and certainly not as much as say an NP1 Gilgamesh would, by virtue of his powerful hit counts/NP gen/NP being SE against 99% of Servants. In fact, the rates being what they are, your probabilities are more likely that you’ll spend way more to get her than you would by ditching the GSSR, or whatever.

Edit: Here are examples of what she can run and more broadly what it takes for her to 3T, known as the “Hokusai System” in JP.


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I’ll do knight class.

But if there is a thing that i’ve learned…in the hard way…about GSSR, is that:

1- you won’t get the servant you want

2- if there is a SSR servant that you do not want, you’ll probably fall victim of the Stheno Law:

Meaning, you’ll get exactly the servant you did not want.

So, i’m picking the general pool that i prefer. At that point, i’ll be happy if i get spared from the Stheno Law

This time, my biggest Stheno Law is Sherlock.

I need Rulers, i desperately need Jeanne D’Arc.

What i don’t need is Sherlock, i have him NP2.

If i get a bad servant, that’s ok i guess.

But if i get a gold Ruler Class card and i get my 3rd copy of Sherlok…

that would be the Ultimate Trolling

I’m debating over the fact that the Cavalry banner has both the highest chance of duplicates (23% vs 4% on the knight), but also has the best missing supports (Merlin and Waver, already have Tama).