Which Magikarp (or other pokemon) for Ultra (or other) League?

Similar to this topic from a few days ago: Which Ferroseed for Great League?

but in general. I’m interested to know how to determine which one is better when the results are pretty close. In this case I used a magikarp/gyarados as an example, however if the general outlines for determining the best one can be applied to other pokemon/leagues as well, then so much better.

So, I have several Magikarp that return the same (or very similar) results on the site mentioned in the other topic.
For example:

  1. Magikarp with 157 CP, is lvl27, and has stats of 4/15/13. Rank Checker shows:

  2. Magikarp with 140 CP, is also lvl27, and has stats of 2/7/11. Rank Checker shows:
    (it says I can only put one image in my post, I’ll try to post it below)

They are both at exactly the same percentage. The differences in stats are very small. They are neighbours in rank (118 for the first one and 117 for the second one).

Which one do you suggest to evolve and why?

At first I thought the first one because it has higher IVs, and would cost less to power up (in this case, powerup isnt necessary, so the cost would be 400 candy to get it to 2491 CP).
But the second one has lower IVs and that means it can be powered up by 1 level to get it to 2499 CP, which should be better. Sure, it costs more, but in this case the extra cost is small (9k dust and 8 candies more).

But even so, if we disregard the cost (and/or assume that the player is rich/willing to pay whatever it costs to get the best pokemon), is the CP/rank the only (or main) factor in figuring out which pokemon is best?
In this example, is the 2nd magikarp better simply because it is ranked higher than the 1st magikarp? Or do IVs matter as well (like, 1st magikarp has higher attack, so perhaps that could be important in certain matchups)?

Here is the 2nd picture:

I have more similar examples, if needed I can post more.

Thanks.

You will never notice the difference. So just push the one with the higher level.

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Never? Surely there are certain situations, even if very rare, where a difference exists, even if it isnt noticable?
And even if they dont, even if my question is purely theoretical, I’d still like to know what you guys think would (theoretically?) be better :)

Well, never because you won’t have the chance to directly compare them ;)
But even if someone hands you over two phones with those two, chance is high that you won’t notice a difference - or even worse, in the first 100 matches the first is better, in the next 100, the latter. And then?
But lets come to theory: it is more or less about offense or defense, basically you exchange two more attack in #2 for 4 more defense in #1. Let’s neglect the tiny 2 hp more in #2. On paper, in sims, # 1 is better. Simply put. In 1 shield scens, it wins 244 instead of 238 because of bulk points. This is in open UL, which is best anyway for Gyarados. However the only one of these six battles which is meta relevant is the one vs toxicroak. And I didn’t search for sims where # 2 is better which are there for sure.
So, yes, ok, use #1, since it is the one with fewer resources anyway, right?

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